1st Quarter 2017 Market & Model Portfolio Report
The first quarter of 2017 was a good one for the market generally. The best performing asset classes were emerging markets at 11.4%, international at 7.9% and large USA (S&P500) at 6.1%. While small caps were in favor in emerging markets and international, they were not in favor in the USA – specifically small and value (Russell Value index -0.1%). The opposite, large/growth, usually a laggard, was best index in U.S. stocks at 8.9%. This swing is not unexpected after the small/value significant run-up in Q4 2016.
Global real estate was up at 3.4% and US real estate was fractionally down -0.3%
The O’Reilly Wealth Advisors 100% equity model was up 5.2% with the most conservative portfolio, 40% equity, came in at 2.6%, and the others lay in-between.
The main value of looking at a quarter is to satisfy your curiosity, “What happened in the last three months?”
Remember that a quarter is a “second” in market time and if you look at any quarter, you are bound to see “odd” market behaviors. In fact having the quarter results mirror long term expectations would be unusual! Investing is a long term proposition and there is a huge amount of statistical noise in stock market data. That’s why we focus in the on 18+ years of results, not 1, 3, 5 and 1o years. The 18 year data has a higher probability of representing the actual expectations of future performance.