Your Q4 2017 Report is Here

The quarterly and annual market review is here! Click here. It’s 30 pages and examines the global markets from every angle. The first half is quarterly and second half is the annual. There is also a write-up on bitcoin halfway through. Our 2-page O’Reilly Wealth Advisors performance summary can be found here Here’s a quick 2017 market and O’Reilly Wealth Advisors portfolios update. Markets and our portfolios performed well in 2017. The “winner” for 2017 was markets outside the USA meaning non-US developed countries and emerging market countries. Over the last 20 years markets outside the USA have performed lower compared to the USA large and small stocks – and many shied away from this asset class. We have remained disciplined and our portfolios are exposed to the 27% return. (5% in Q4!)  Of the 27% return, 37% was attributable to emerging markets and 24% was international developed countries. Other investors lost out by avoiding this market segment due to past history. Next best was US large companies as represented by S&P 500, up about 22% (6.6% in Q4!). US small companies (Russell 2000) also had a great year at about 15% (3.3% in Q4.) O’Reilly Wealth Advisors’ most conservative portfolios (40% stock, 60% bonds) were up about 2.2% and 9% for the quarter and year respectively. Excellent results for conservative portfolios which enjoy less volatility at the expense of larger returns. Our most aggressive portfolios (meaning 100% stock, 0% bonds) enjoyed great returns of about 6% and 20% for the quarter and year respectively. The other models fell in between. Even the 100% stock portfolios enjoyed lower volatility than the indexes due to...

Is Bitcoin a bubble?

According to author John Waggoner in his article at Investment News, click here, it is indeed a bubble. He article begins: Some investors have raised the question: “Is bitcoin a bubble?” This is somewhat like asking whether Taylor Swift makes records, or Kim Jong Un likes rockets. But let’s look over the evidence. Before you go to the article – a few observations. Obviously many people have done well with Bitcoin if they bought in at the right time and then sold. If they are still holding Bitcoin, then all bets are off – it’s only a “win” when completed (sold)! Also keep this in mind. What matters is a string of wins, so that your wins compound. Wealth comes from compounding over many years, not one win over 4 months. You make no money in-between small wins and you sometimes lose money. Many of you attempts at winning end up losing – when you’re chasing fads. If you’re holding Bitcoin – get out now and invest cleverly in an index or evidence based investing fund....