O'Reilly Wealth Advisors

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Articles

Financial advice better from a fiduciary than a broker
San Diego Union Tribune
From $1 to $1 billion it makes sense to use an RIA (registered investment advisor) with fiduciary responsibility rather than a broker, who has a much lower level of responsibility, as well as built-in conflicts of interest.


When buying financial advice, ask about commissions, fees
San Diego Union Tribune
Use a fee-only RIA model that aligns the interests of the advisor with yours.


Some pitfalls of searching for a financial planner
San Diego Union Tribune
Key Point: Use advisors that use DFA funds.


The benefits of index funds, and a Web site to bookmark
San Diego Union Tribune
Passive investing routinely outperforms active investing. On your own: Build and occasionally re-balance a portfolio of diverse passive funds. If using an advisor: Use one that uses DFA funds to build and re-balance portfolios for you.


50 years and counting for S&P's index of measuring growth
San Diego Union Tribune
Benchmark your actual investing performance; S&P 500 is a good general one to use. Only benchmarking over long periods of time, greater than 5 years, is meaningful.


Books

Values-Based Financial Planning

A Handbook for Investment Fiduciaries

Links

Foundation for Fiduciary Studies

Centre for Fiduciary Excellence

Dimensional Fund Advisors

1st Quarter 2017 Market & Model Portfolio Report

The first quarter of 2017 was a good one for the market generally. The best performing asset classes were emerging markets at 11.4%, international at 7.9% and large USA (S&P500) at 6.1%. While small caps were in favor in emerging markets and international, they were not in favor in the USA – specifically small and value (Russell Value index -0.1%). The opposite, large/growth, usually a laggard, was best index in U.S. stocks at 8.9%. This swing is not unexpected after the small/value significant run-up in Q4 2016. Global real estate was up at 3.4% and US real estate was fractionally down -0.3% The O’Reilly Wealth Advisors 100% equity model was up 5.2% with the most conservative portfolio, 40% equity, came in at 2.6%, and the others lay in-between. The main value of looking at a quarter is to satisfy your curiosity, “What happened in the last three months?” Remember that a quarter is a “second” in market time and if you look at any quarter, you are bound to see “odd” market behaviors. In fact having the quarter results mirror long term expectations would be unusual! Investing is a long term proposition and there is a huge amount of statistical noise in stock market data. That’s why we focus in the on 18+ years of results, not 1, 3, 5 and 1o years. The 18 year data has a higher probability of representing the actual expectations of future performance.   See our market summary (16 pages) here and the model portfolio results (2 pages) here.... read more

My “Inner Nerd” Loves When Data Shatters Preconceived Notions

Each time a month finished at a new S&P500 high – they looked at the S&P500 12 months later and found that 80.5% of the time, the S&P500 was higher not lower! When they looked at ALL the months across those 91 years – 74.7% of the time, 12 month later, the S&P500 was higher. Very close numbers, very slightly favoring higher markets when starting at a new high!

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Prediction Season

In the coming weeks, investors are likely to be bombarded with predictions about what the future, and specifically the next year, may hold for their portfolios. When faced with recommendations of this sort, it would be wise to remember that investors are better served by sticking with a long-term plan rather than changing course in reaction to predictions and short-term calls.

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